Houston Astros Baseball

Analyze The Lidge Trade

The Day After:
I figured I would wait a day or two to discuss my opinion of this
trade based on the fact that in the past I have changed my mind
many times.

Analyzing this trade is tough to do because it's judgment
will be based on the performance of Micheal Bourn. His numbers
would lead us to believe that he is a high on base lefty who
can steal lots of bases. Also, as Wade has mentioned, speed and defense is the new mantra of the Astros. Does Bourn have speed and above avg defense? You bet! The addition of Bourn will at least stregthen the middle of the field by leaps and bounds. Would Torii Hunter have been better? Most likely, yes. But let me also ask you this. Is Hunter worth 17Mil a year plus the money we saved by loading Lidge? For those who say he is, would he be worth that still if we had a top prospect with a big upside under club control for 5 years making next to nothing? That's what I thought. It is my opinion that this trade will work out very well for the Astros in both the short and long run. This is why.

Houston native Bourn will be starting his career with a team that has made it clear he is there guy. He has the support of the front office and will be given the chance to shine. Under those circumstances, I beleive Bourn will not only live up to hype, but surpass it. It's true he is still very green, and because of that he will require time to adjust. This means that a .260 BA at the All Star break will not mean someone is getting fired. The fact that he was/is the #3 prospect in the Phillies system says alot(Behind ace Hamels). Within two short months our team has gotten younger and faster. Bourn averaged 41 stolen bases per year in the minors and with our new aggressive baserunning manager, you can bet he will be asked to continue. My favorite thing about Bourn is his plate discipline. Bourn's ratio of K's to BB's is very encouraging considering plate discipline will generally indicate how good a hitter you are or will be in the pros.

(Minors)
Bourn.......(339K/227BB)

Other than Micheal Bourn, the benefits of this trade aren't as transparent as you
would think.

Astros Lose:
One year of closer Brad Lidge (Arb eligible)
Utility man Bruntlett (Arb eligible)

Astros Get:
Brad's $6 Mil 2007 salary
5 Years of CF Micheal Bourn ($380,000)
6 Years of 3B prospect Costanzo (Min)
Strong RP Geary [Career 3.94ERA] ($837,000)
$10-17 Mil for not signing a CF free agent

If my instincts are right, I believe that there is no way that Wade could have traded our closer away without knowing who will be his replacement. Because of this, I believe Cordero will be our closer in '08. Which is GREAT! The money we saved will more than cover his salary. Now if you add Cordero to the "Astros get" side, is this trade worth it to you?
Also, consider now that since our outfield is set, we have two outfielders who could fit nicely in a trade. As I have hoped for a while, a package of Luke/Burke could be strong enough to fetch us one of The Twins young super pitchers coming up. If not, we should throw what we can out there for either Willis, Kazmir, Lincecum, or even consider Lowry.

In the end, only time will tell if this trade in fact works out for the Astros. But as I write this I can't help but remember only 6 months ago when I was begging Purpura to trade Lidge. Looking back, I am glad he didn't. We could have ended up with another JJ trade. But if in the end, this works out the way Wade probably wants it to, we could be looking at an '08 Astros of: Bourn, Castillo, Berkman, Lee, Pence, Wiggy, Towles, Everett, P.....Oswalt, Willis, Backe, Patton/Wandy, Woody,,,,with (lefty),Paulino, Sarfate, Geary, Linebrink, Qualls, Cordero.

I would bet on that team!! It may end up that this trade was the catalyst for this team becoming contenders again. But only time will tell, until then. Keep the faith! Go Astros!

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