Unfortunately, My Astros Blog will have to take a back seat to my career. The good news is that The Astros stink so it will be a little easier to not watch.
Thanks to all who kept up with the blog and sorry for the delayed response.
The Astros are 4-15 since May 25th and 3-10 in June. "Houston we have a problem" In case you missed it (lucky you) The Astros capped their disappointing month with a brutal, BRUTAL beating from the Bronx Bombers. Nothing like a 13-0 loss to really get you thinking. The loss, which was the finally of a three game sweep by The Yankees in our house, really shed some light on The Astros weaknesses. Our offense was bad, Roy Oswalt was the offensive player of the game going 2-2 yeah, that bad! Our pitching was just dreadful, nothing new and The Astros looked dead.
So, what's going on? Well, to be honest I have taken the last couple days off writing on here hoping The Astros would win a couple and keep me from sounding like a downer, but let's face it this team will be in last by Tuesday, if not sooner. Let's look at the facts:
When looking at The Astros team statistics from both sides of the ball and comparing them to say a month ago when The Astros could do no wrong there isn't a whole lot different.
The Astros are still ranked well in runs scored (9th/311) and ranked very high in batting average (4th/.264) and again are above average in total bases (6th/979). So, it would appear that our offense isn't to blame for a blunt of our problems, let's look at pitching.
The Astros team ERA ranks poorly (12th/4.50) with our starters alone posting a 4.77 ERA good enough for 13th in The NL. To supplement this information, The Astros rank 10th in quality starts (33) and worst in HR's given up (98). So, it would appear that although we have had our offensive struggles the overwhelming blame should be placed on the pitching staff.
How about the bullpen? The Astros bullpen isn't terrible in terms of ERA, ranking 10th (4.01ERA) and do stand out as having the fewest Blown Saves in The NL(5). So, the bullpen is good then? Not quite, The Astros bullpen ranks 2nd in allowing the most total bases (367) and posts the absolute worst slugging percentage against in The NL (.448) the next closest is St. Louis with .413. You guessed it, that slugging percentage against is a product of allowing the most HR's of any bullpen in The NL(33) . So, our starters stink and give up lots of HR's and our bullpen is ok but gives up lots of HR's, that's a recipe to lose.
So what now? Where The Astros go from here is anyones guess. My guess is that nothing changes for a little while. The Astros have a interesting schedule this month and look to sell lots of tickets during inter league month giving Drayton no reason to change a thing. I think once all this Red Sox, Yankee hoopla subsides and The Astros are left an abundant amount of home games after The All Star Break and Drayton sees ticket sales going down he will be forced to make a move. I am highly skeptical that he would agree to any trade giving away Oswalt, Tejada, or Pence. The other "stars" have no-trade clauses and aren't expected to waive those. So, in the end we may be witness to a pretty pathetic last gasp at regaining the season with a couple mediocre moves to bring in over the hill veteran pitching to try and patch this pitching staff back together, but in the end will have little effect.
What would I do? There isn't much that can be done really, but just for fun...
If The Astros are 10+ games back two weeks before the Trade Deadline (July 31) then I would try and trade Tejada for a bounty of high level prospects. His resurgence year will increase his value and losing his $13 Million salary would be nice as well. To replace him, I would bring up surging Tommy Manzella. Remember last year? Even though the team stunk it was fun to watch the young guys, Tommy can be that, but has a slight chance to stay. Tommy is considered a Adam Everett defender with a better bat.
This year Tommy was hitting very well in AA (.300/.346/.446) and was promoted to AAA. His performance in AAA will determine how loose I would be with Miggy. So far so good, in Tommy's first game in AAA he went 3-5 with a 2B and 3 RBI.
This sounds good and all, but I believe that Miggy some sort of no-trade clause, maybe limited but would have to agree on the team, and getting a decent bounty would be tough for the perpetually again SS. In summary, as Astros fans, we are in store for a long year. Hopefully, we can at least make it interesting.
Ps. The last time that I wrote The Astros stunk we started winning, so cross your fingers.
Sunday June 8
Today was the type of game you hate to see. Mainly because The Astros pretty much had this one in the bag and just gave it away. These are the games that average teams wins, let alone good teams. The game fell apart in the seventh inning when Wigginton booted a double play. Instead of having bases empty with two outs, there where two on with no outs. From then on it only got worse. The Astros we able to get a couple outs in exchange for a couple runs. The big blow came when Brocail was able to induce an EASY pop up to shallow right center. I call it easy, but Pence and Bourn some how mess it up(communication error) and the ball drops. Giving The Cards a two run lead.
The Astros show a little heart and get a run back, and just as it seemed like would tie it up, Ed Romero holds Reggie Abercrombie at 3rd(came from 1st) on a Erstad pinch hit double. Odds are heavily in Abercrombie's favor that he would have scored considering the throw in from right field didn't even go home (2nd base). I can understand the logic behind his decision, but at the same I can't. He didn't want to risk ruining a rally by giving up the 3rd out at home. However, we were down by one with one inning left and two outs already recorder. To make an even better case, there was a lefty on the mound and Michael Bourn was due up, to save the suspense, Bourn popped out.
All in all, The Astros wasted a very good start, which seems to be in demand these days and gave away the game with lackluster heart and poor fundamentals.
On The Plus Side
The Astros Continue to sign recent draftees showing that farm depth is of top priority. What really struck me as impressive was the fact that Scouting director Bobby Heck was able to sign late round picks very early. Generally, if a player is picked later in the draft and thus offered far less money he would wait and hope to improve his position next year, or in the future. This is especially true with high schoolers. In just two short days since the draft finished Heck has been able to ink seven players. Hopefully soon to sign are a couple of Arizona outfielders who season ended today with a 4-2 loss to number one Miami. Those players, (T.J. Steele, John Gaston)
Note: I watched alot of the Miami vs Arizona Super Regionals and I really like Steele. he looks good in the field, looks confident at the plate, and has incredible natural speed. Hopefully he signs soon.
For a complete list of Astros Draft Picks Click Here
Although the draft isn't over for today yet, The Astros have made quite a splash with their early picks. The top ten in the draft overall today went as:
1) Tim Beckham
2) Pedro Alvarez
3) Eric Hosmer
4) Brian Matusz
5) Buster Posey
6) Kyle Skipworth
7) Yonder Alonso
8) Gordan Beckham
9) Aaron Crow
10) Jason Castro (Astros)
The Astros made possibly the biggest surprise move of the day by selecting Jason Castro 10th. When The White Sox selected Beckam with the 8th pick most would have bet their life saving that The Astros would end up with either RHP Aaron Crow or 1B Justin Smoak. When Aaron Crow was selected 9th that all but sealed the deal for Smoak. However, in a surprise move The Astros chose the 3rd catcher of the day and a player thought not to selected until the end of the first round. Smoak was immediately chosen next by The Texas Rangers. This single move may be Heck's early statement for his new team. Let's compare the two and you can decide who you would have chosen.
Justin Smoak
Justin Smoak, 1b, South Carolina
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 188. Age: 21.
A switch-hitting first baseman with power, Smoak draws natural comparisons to Mark Teixiera. Drafted out of high school in the 16th round by the Athletics, he has started every game for South Carolina since arriving on the Columbia campus, doing nothing but produce. After batting .303 with 17 home runs, Smoak earned Freshman All-America honors. He followed that with a .315 batting average and 22 home runs in his sophomore year enough to be tabbed as a third team All-American. He also competed for Team USA last summer. As a first baseman, Smoak has Gold Glove-caliber actions and soft hands. His footwork and instincts around the bag are advanced and his arm strength is adequate. As a hitter, he is consistent from both sides of the plate, and he has superior pitch recognition. A power threat against any pitch, Smoak has the ability to hit to all fields. Smoak proved his power translates to wood when he hit 11 home runs in 39 games while playing in the Cape Cod League following his freshman year, though he struggled with Team USA last summer. He is thought to be the best combination of offense and defense at first base in this draft class.
(Credit: Baseball America)
Additional Info: MILB.com
Jason Castro
Jason Castro, c, Stanford
B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 215. Age: 20.
A catcher most of his prep career, Castro entered this season thought of as a bat first after his strong summer in the Cape Cod League. He hit just .263 combined in his first two seasons at Stanford, then hit .341 in the Cape (second-best in the league), but he played mostly first base or outfield in deference to Florida State's Buster Posey. This spring, Castro has put it all together, showing he can hit for average and power while being Stanford's primary catcher. At 6-foot-3, he's tall but athletic enough to have good lateral movement and agility, and he's improved as a receiver, where he's considered fringe-average at worst. His arm also grades as average, and he's an above-average hitter, particularly for his position. Offensively, Castro stays inside the ball and has a fundamentally sound, strong swing. One scout likened his offensive package to that of former Athletics supplemental first-rounder Mark Teahen, who also played collegiately in the Bay Area, only with more power. In some years, Castro would be the best catcher on the board, but this he's third behind Posey and Southern California prep phenom Kyle Skipworth. He's not expected to last past the first round.
(Credit Baseball America)
Additional Info: MILB.com
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The Astros Day 1 Draft Picks (As of 9:00 ET)
Rnd 1. Jason Castro C (College)
Rnd 1*.Jordan Lyles RHP (HS)
Rnd 2. Jay Austin OF (HS)
Rnd 3. Chase Davidson 1B (HS)
Rnd 3*.Ross Seaton RHP (HS)
Rnd 4. T.J. Steele OF (College)
Rnd 5. David Duncan LHP (College)
Rnd 6. Jack Shuck OF (College)
*Indicates supplemental sandwich pick
Draft Day Analyst Extras
Baseball America On Astros 2nd Round Pick
Sandwich Shocker
"The Astros are the Astros, and after taking Jason Castro at 10 overall—considered a reach for a late-first-round talent—they went off the board with their supplemental pick, taking 6-foot-4 Jordan Lyles. He didn’t make BA’s Top 200, and ranked seventh in the state of South Carolina, tops among prep players. Here’s Matt Blood’s scouting report on Lyles:
Righthander Jordan Lyles leads the high school ranks. Blessed with a clean and easy delivery, Lyles offers a fastball in the upper 80s and can break 90 mph on occasion. He also has room in his 6-foot-4 frame to add strength and velocity. Lyles also throws a curveball and changeup and can command all three pitches. A three-sport star in high school, Lyles is athletic on the mound. He is committed to South Carolina."
Keith Law On Castro and Smoak
"Castro didn't get to catch last year in the Cape Cod League because his team also had Posey. Castro was expected to go in the second half of the first round. He's a contact hitter; he will not hit for a lot of power. He's an average regular catcher in the big leagues. But I don't see him as a star. By the way, the next best college catcher in the draft is well below Castro."
"This is the best pick in the draft so far. Smoak is the third-best player on my board. He's a switch-hitting Adrian Gonzalez with more power. In the Rangers' ballpark, he has a good chance to hit 40 home runs, if he develops. There are no major holes in his game. I saw this scenario possibly unfolding last night. A lot of things had to go right for them to get Smoak, and they did."
One last thing to think about regarding the draft and a teams success or failure. A team can select whomever they chose, but the big question is will that player actually play for your team? Signability is the buzz word this year and this may shed some light on how The Astros made their selections this year.
Even though Astros Scouting Director Bobby Heck claimed he would draft based on choosing the best player available over a clubs needs, one would have to wonder if that is really true. Also, keep in mind that it's fair to assume that Castro won't demand nearly the same bonus money as Smoak would have seeing as Castro was expecting to be picked towards the end on round 1, and that fact alone could have left Heck with very little options as McClane has shown his displeasure with giving draftees large signing bonuses. This same idea "signability" may have also contributed to The Astros 2nd round selection of Lyles. Lyles isn't even on the top 200 draft list yet he was selected in the thirty's.
In the end roughly 25 players from an average hull of 50 from a draft actually sign, and if we are able to sign most players because of a smaller price tag on the big picks then we may end up on top. Lastly, remember that these drafts are so deep that it's easy to forget that some of the best players in baseball have come from rounds 20 and higher, including Astros ace, Roy Oswalt (23rd rnd).
Wednesday June 4
Tomorrow The Astros along with all thirty other MLB teams will begin the Amateur Draft. As most of you know, The Astros farm system is in particular bad shape. The Astros rank 29 of 30 in farm strength. Ironically, our poor performance last year is going to directly effect that same farm system in what hopes to be a very productive draft. For those of you who don't know The Astros have several picks in the first couple rounds and six overall picks in the first one hundred twenty-two.
Here is our draft positions:
Round 1
10) Astros
Supplemental Round 1
38) (Losing Miller)
Round 2
56) Astros
Round 3
88) Astros
Supplemental Round 2
109) (Not signing Dietrich)
Round 4
122) Astros
This years draft has me captivated considering the overall number of early selections we have, the completely transformed scouting system which will be looking to make a good impression, and hopefully some slack from Owner Drayton McClane on paying what's needed to sign these picks.
How The Draft Works, Or Doesn't Work
If you aren't familiar with the reasoning behind players being drafted not signing to a team let me explain. There are a few reasons why a player drafted may chose to not sign with a team. The most common are when a player being drafted out of high school or early in college decides he would rather continue on to college. For instance Astros CF Michael Bourn was selected by The Astros out of high school but decided to go onto The University of Houston instead. The next common way to lose a pick is what has really hurt The Astros in recent years. After a player is picked, that player, his agent and the team who selected him have to agree on monetary terms. To these players the yearly salary isn't nearly as important as the signing bonus. Now some players can demand very high dollars and are then less likely to be signed by teams with lower team salaries. For example, recent team signing bonuses.
2007
1)Orioles $7.7 Mil
**Astros $0.5 Mil
2006
1)Cubs $9.3 Mil
**Astros $3.1 Mil
2005
1)D-Backs $9.5 Mil
**Astros $4.1 Mil
As you can see, The Astros are going crazy with handing out money to draftees. Also know that in 2007 we were not able to a sign a player until the 5th round and that had alot to do with signing bonuses, or lack of.
To confront this issue and unfairness from team to team, MLB Commish Bud Selig put in place a "slotting" system. This was basically a cap on how much a player drafted from a certain position should be paid. The HUGE problem with this however, is that this was a guideline and not a rule. Because of this, The Astros were one of only two teams in all of baseball to actually follow these guidelines. For those wondering, The Pirates where the other. However, don't expect them to fallow this year. Their GM recently stated that the bank is open.
What gives me hope this year is that with The Astros recent AWFUL drafts and the emergence or prospect Hunter Pence Uncle Drayton may be a little more willing to spend. Now, Selig has put new men in charge of the slotting system this year and has changed some of the policies trying to make the system more effective, time will only tell if it is.
Now For The Good Stuff, Astros Draft Buzz
So who will Astros be signing? 
The truth is, no one really knows. This years draft class is extremely muddled and to supplement that with Astros Scouting Director Bobby Heck's tight lipped style, we won't know until tomorrow. However, we can speculate and there are tons of mock drafts already out there. Unfortunately, those mocks are all SO different it's pretty hard to gauge who really gets who.
From what I have read, the players who are higher on The Astros list for the #10 overall pick are:
Yonder Alonso 1B Bio
Kyle Skipworth C Bio
Justin Smoak 1B Bio
Aaron Crow RHP Bio
Shooter Hunt RHP Bio
